Russia:
A “Conflict Heading toward Its End”?

May 18, 2026

This article is translated from the May 15 issue, #3015 of Lutte Ouvrière (Workers Struggle), the paper of the Trotskyist group of that name active in France.

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated Russia’s 1945 victory over Hitler’s Germany with a small-scale military parade on May 9.

Usually, Russian authorities continue the tradition of the Stalinist regime and make a point of celebrating the victorious outcome of the “Great Patriotic War” with great fanfare, holding the war up as an example to the population. But this year, endlessly parading troops and the latest Russian military technology past the Kremlin was out of the question.

Did the Kremlin fear that Kyiv would demonstrate its drones’ capacities by disrupting the festivities? Even with a “dual air defense system” deployed, Putin preferred not to push his luck. Ukrainian forces had just successfully launched an air attack on one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, more than 500 miles inside the front.

Putin has boasted nonstop about the power of his army, repeating his “victory will be ours” slogan used on recruitment posters for so-called volunteers. But the Russian population knows too well that Ukrainian drones and missiles regularly strike border towns, refineries, ports, and arms depots, sometimes deep inside Russian territory. People see clearly the cost of the war, even in less impoverished regions with fewer “volunteers” to fight and die in Ukraine. They see a steep erosion of their purchasing power due to inflation following the explosion in military spending.

In this climate, Putin preferred to deliver a less warlike and more reassuring speech. He said he is convinced the conflict “is heading toward its end.” To those with doubts—proof that he knows their numbers are growing—he affirmed: “I am firmly convinced that our cause is just.”

This changes nothing on the ground. Even during the “three-day truce” announced for May 8 and 9, with the agreement of Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the fighting did not stop. And it will continue—as will the destruction and deaths on both sides this war has caused for more than four years.

Putin is well aware that he is mired in a seemingly endless war from which he sees no way out where he could still claim victory. At the same time, Zelenskyy is in a similar pickle. He is forced to continue the war just to maintain his grip on power. His only supporters, the European Union powers, condition their “aid” on the war dragging on.

So, the carnage continues. The Russian authorities know this will inevitably fuel discontent. Measures which the Kremlin justifies by claiming they are needed to protect the population from the enemy, like shutting down the internet and blocking access to unregulated social media, are provoking grumbling, even in circles which previously would never challenge the regime.

How long will these poorly disguised police measures, accompanied by increased repression against anything that moves, be enough to keep the lid on the cauldron of discontent?