Ukraine/Russia:
Four Years of Fratricidal War

March 2, 2026

This article is translated from the February 27 issue, #3004 of Lutte Ouvrière (Workers Struggle), the paper of the Trotskyist group of that name active in France.

The past year has been the deadliest in Ukraine since February 24, 2022, when Putin launched the Russian army into the country. The butchery dragged on while the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union launched numerous initiatives said to pave the road for a ceasefire.

For a year now, summits between Trump and Putin have taken place one after another. Their emissaries have become inseparable, sometimes accompanied by European and Ukrainian counterparts. But what does the word “peace” really mean to soldiers on the front lines, or to civilian populations, deprived again this winter of heating and electricity, and living in constant fear of ever more sophisticated and lethal missiles and drones?

France boasts that the Kremlin’s “special military operation” has not achieved its goal. Yes, Putin did not succeed in conquering Kyiv within three days, nor in sweeping away Zelenskyy’s government, as his generals had promised. The Russian regime appears bogged down in this war, whose economic, demographic, and social consequences weigh increasingly heavily on Russian society—as Western media and leaders repeatedly emphasize. But this portrayal of the situation masks one major fact. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union 35 years ago, the imperialist powers, led by the U.S., have relentlessly sought to detach Ukraine from Russia. By dangling the prospect of its integration into NATO and the European Union, they use it as a pawn to counter Russia in its own backyard.

Indeed, war did not erupt in 2022 out of nowhere. It was the extension to all of Ukraine of the conflict that began in 2014 in Donbas in the industrial east. That in turn was part of a decades-long imperialist policy aimed at weakening Russia. All this has been achieved without the West taking any risks, since Ukraine and its people were on the front line.

Ignoring this context means condemning oneself to misunderstanding the drama unfolding in Eastern Europe. Total war is a scenario that most Russians and Ukrainians considered impossible until the very last moment. How can two peoples fight each other who were intertwined for centuries and share the same culture, the same history, even the same language—with many families having members on both sides of a border that never really existed? And for what?

Those Who Talk Peace, While Cherishing War

Kremlin negotiators are portrayed as unwilling to compromise. But some media outlets have pointed out that massive bilateral economic agreements are being negotiated between Russia and Washington, on the sidelines of peace talks in Geneva, Florida, and Doha. Last summer, no sooner had Trump extended his hand for Ukraine’s “rare earths” than Putin informed him that Russia possessed far more and was ready to sign joint exploitation contracts with American firms. Behind the scenes at the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, oil giant Exxon resumed talks with its Russian partner to exploit giant gas fields on Sakhalin Island. These were merely preliminary steps. Since then, negotiations have revolved around Russia’s invitation to American companies to jointly exploit the Arctic’s wealth of gas, oil, copper, titanium, nickel, lithium, and other resources, and to launch joint projects in aviation and nuclear energy. According to the economic agency Bloomberg, this “package” is worth 12 trillion dollars.

These are projects that remain contingent on the lifting of economic sanctions against Russia. But their scale no doubt largely explains why Trump is putting so much pressure on his “ally” Zelenskyy to comply with Moscow’s demands. And Trump has other priorities. American satellites continue to provide essential intelligence to the Ukrainian army—Trump doesn’t want to abandon the field of telecommunications to the U.S.’s European allies-slash-competitors.

On this fourth anniversary of the war, Ukraine’s European allies reassured it of their support against Moscow. But this did not lead to anything other than the usual status quo regarding a possible peace agreement.

Hunting for the Jackpot

Europeans took over from the U.S. in supplying arms to Ukraine. But they are struggling to guarantee its security against Russia, despite their loud pronouncements. First, they reportedly lack sufficient troops to deploy. Moreover, Germany and Poland refuse to even consider it. Furthermore, the current status quo suits France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, which have become Kyiv’s primary arms suppliers. Their general staffs and arms manufacturers have an enormous testing ground for developing their weapons of death and perfecting new technologies such as drones in Ukraine as it currently exists. Ukraine is also a giant showcase for exporting their military expertise. So why would they push for peace when war demands ever more cannon fodder made in France and Germany—that is, more guns, drones, and so on?

Certainly, Kyiv cannot afford to continue this war. But its “allies” are only too happy to extend Ukraine a permanent line of credit, via the IMF or European financial institutions. Everyone knows Kyiv will never be able to repay these enormous sums, whether the war ends or not. But, besides the fact that war is already a boon for Western banks—with their governments to guarantee their loans—it puts these same states in a better position for the “aftermath,” when it comes to rebuilding this devastated country. The latest estimate puts this market at 400 billion dollars!

Business circles make no secret of eyeing this windfall. On January 30, an international memo from the Crédit Agricole Group, the world’s ninth-largest bank in terms of assets, had the blunt title, “Strengthening Ukraine’s contribution to the Group’s growth in Europe.” No need, as on the evening news, to talk about democracy, the courage of an entire nation, and European values! The memo gets straight to the point: “Our objective is to increase our market share in agriculture, auto loans, and information technology. And of course, we want to play our full role in Ukraine’s reconstruction process.” Getting a slice of a 400 billion dollar pie is sure motivation. “Of course.”